Florida Election Day Tracker
How Election Day is going for each party against expectations, from Florida's live county counts.
Timeline
Each party's Election Day ballots against what was expected, statewide, through the day. Above the line, a party is turning out more of its remaining voters than expected.
Ballots by the hour
Ballots counties added in each period, or the running Election Day total, by registered party. Counties post on their own schedules, so an increment holds what was posted then, not exactly when it was cast.
Counties
Pace is a party's Election Day ballots against what was expected from that county's ballots so far, split the way its tank is split (+10% = 10% more than expected). Edge is the Election Day two-party Rep share minus the tank's. Both appear once a county has 200 two-party Election Day ballots.
How this works
Banked is ballots already cast before Election Day, by registered party, from the counties' official live counts (the Turnout Quick View feeds behind each Supervisor of Elections' site). Expected Election Day vote is the tank: the vote each party was expected to cast on Election Day. Every registrant who hadn't voted keeps their turnout-model score, discounted by their 2022 and 2024 general-election behavior, with the same method as the Echelon early vote tracker. The voter file runs a few days behind the county counts, so ballots banked after its cutoff come out of the tank, weighted toward likelier voters. These expectations are set before Election Day and lock at 6 a.m. ET on Election Day, an hour before polls open; nothing during the day recalculates them.
Election Day ballots are everything a county adds after 6 a.m. ET on Election Day, an hour before polls open: in-person ballots plus mail ballots that arrive that day. Each bar is a party's expected Election Day vote and fills with its Election Day ballots; the white tick is where it would be if its voters were turning out exactly as expected.
Vs. expectations is the Republican share of the two-party Election Day vote minus the share the tank expected in the counties those ballots came from. Each county's ballots so far are split the way its tank is split, so time of day, turnout level and which counties report first drop out. What's left is whose voters are showing up.
Projected electorate is the registered-party margin of the final electorate (Rep minus Dem as a share of all voters) if the rest of the tank splits the way Election Day has so far, relative to expectations. The 90% range comes from resampling the county updates posted so far, so it reflects how much the pace varies between counties and through the day. It can't anticipate a shift still to come. The 2022 and 2024 figures are today's registrants who voted in those generals.
Broward has no live feed this year, so its bank comes from the Division of Elections' daily county file and it is left out of the Election Day measures (the bars, vs. expectations and the timeline). For the projected electorate, it takes the Election Day pace of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, its closest analogs with live feeds: its whole expected Election Day vote is split Rep/Dem the way theirs is breaking relative to expectations. That one imputed number is used everywhere: the county table, the map and the statewide projection.